What I Think of Elon Musk's Plan

I’m a long-time Tesla devotee and have thought about Elon Musk and his plans quite a bit the last few years. (I mean, both Tesla and Solarcity are in the Bay Area).

But I really think all of the rampant praise of his new plan has been a bit feckless. Let me just delve into this by close-reading his plan:

The first master plan that I wrote 10 years ago is now in the final stages of completion. It wasn't all that complicated and basically consisted of…

By definition, how can a master plan be basic and simple? Is it really a master plan if you’re constantly updating it every so often? Is this really a master plan or is it just a plan?

Create a low volume car, which would necessarily be expensive

Use that money to develop a medium volume car at a lower price

Use that money to create an affordable, high volume car

And...

Provide solar power. No kidding, this has literally been on our website for 10 years.

My knowledge of economics is limited, but isn’t this what they call ‘scaling a product’?? How is this a MASTER plan?

Musk goes on to explain the precise reasons behind his endeavor:

By definition, we must at some point achieve a sustainable energy economy or we will run out of fossil fuels to burn and civilization will collapse. Given that we must get off fossil fuels anyway and that virtually all scientists agree that dramatically increasing atmospheric and oceanic carbon levels is insane, the faster we achieve sustainability, the better.

Ok, let’s really dissect where Tesla is right now and what its potential impact would be (post-Model 3 release).

For one, transportation takes up about 26% of all greenhouse gas emissions in the States: https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/usinventoryreport.html

Electricity (so, comprising the grids that power our homes, buildings, etc) takes up 30%. Is anyone paying attention to this equation? We’re talking about moving tens of thousands of vehicles to the electrical grid. Even at the end of 2017 (the Model 3’s release date), much of our power will still come from coal and natural gas.

We’re not fundamental changing the equation unless we change the electrical grid, which won’t fundamentally change in the next 16-18 months. Musk is proposing we add additional strain on the largest contributor to greenhouse gases in the United States! Does anyone else see a problem with this?

But wait! Musk says we can use solar power. I’m sure I could probably delve into why the economics of Solarcity are a disaster (QED Tesla takeover) but take a whirl on Seeking Alpha. Simply put, his plan isn’t working in terms of solar installation, even for consumers.

I feel this article doesn’t do it justice, but there is a concrete environmental impact to building tens of thousands of Teslas and thousands of Powerwalls: lithium mining.

https://www.theguardian.com/vital-signs/2015/jun/10/tesla-batteries-environment-lithium-elon-musk-powerwall

Even if we were to eliminate all car pollution, transportation only makes up 14% of global greenhouse gas emission:

https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html

We still have 86% of the pie to account for. 700 million air conditioners are to be installed in the next 15 years. I’m going to guess the 25% of the pie that’s currently ‘Electricity and Heat Production’ is going to look radically different in 2030.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/05/31/the-world-is-about-to-install-700-million-air-conditioners-heres-what-that-means-for-the-climate/

So, our transportation issues nonwithstanding, Musk’s initial plan(on cars) can only really address 14% of the problem.

So this sentence:

Given that we must get off fossil fuels anyway and that virtually all scientists agree that dramatically increasing atmospheric and oceanic carbon levels is insane, the faster we achieve sustainability, the better.

Is sort of maddening. He’s really suggesting that electric cars will ‘dramatically’ affect carbon levels? Give me a break.

But HERE's his Master Plan, Part Two(with my comments):

Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage (yes, but does this really address the percentage of GHG emissions that are not electricity-related?)
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments (we're not going to build ourselves out of this mess with lithium batteries)
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning(this is just a fancy phrase meaning cars will talk to each other and to Tesla)
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it (by whom is it being used then?? Also, on the sharing point--if we are really turning into a sharing economy, does it even make sense for individuals to buy cars to make money?)